Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should ‘stay home unless it’s critical’


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awoodward@businessinsider.com (Aylin Woodward,Anna Medaris Miller)
Business Insider 

Ted S. Warren / AP

  • The new coronavirus has killed 41 Americans and infected another 1,700.
  • A panel of experts at the University of California, San Francisco predicted that between 40% and 70% of Americans could become infected within the next 18 months, one internist attending the panel reported.
  • Assuming a 1% mortality rate from the coronavirus, and 50% of the US population becoming infected, that means about 1.5 million Americans could die — that’s if no drug is found effective and made available.
  • Accordingly, the panelists suggested “anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical.”
  • In February, disease modelers from the CDC suggested between 160 million and 214 million Americans could be infected, and as many as 1.7 million could die.

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A coronavirus patient on March 11 at the Kirkland, Washington, Life Care Center.
A coronavirus patient on March 11 at the Kirkland, Washington, Life Care Center.


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The Kirkland Life Care Center, where more than two dozen people have tested positive for the coronavirus, on February 29.
The Kirkland Life Care Center, where more than two dozen people have tested positive for the coronavirus, on February 29.

 

A nurse at Lenval pediatric hospital in Nice, France, on March 5.
A nurse at Lenval pediatric hospital in Nice, France, on March 5.


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